As the cost of capacitors reflects a supply shortage and an exponential increase in demand, it has become clear that AI’s evolution will naturally put pressure on this industry, and perhaps on many other component supply chains. This may impact how companies manage their inventories and remain agile in the volatile market.
While engineers and procurement teams must fathom a way through these constraints, they can manage the risks that will ensue. By controlling their response to AI as it continues to evolve, and as obsolescence becomes more frequent, they can make more informed decisions with the help of Octopart.
The global push to reduce emissions has led to an overwhelming influx in demand for new-energy vehicles. Electric vehicles (EVs) became the talk of the decade for their ability to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The ripple effect of EV demand is the upstream pressure on capacitor supplies, as a single vehicle may contain as many as 22,000 multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) of varying sizes.
The increase in the number of capacitors in each vehicle is a result of more complex and AI-powered systems in cars, including:
In recent years, the focus has shifted as new vehicles are increasingly equipped with in-built AI servers to manage the vast amounts of data generated both within the vehicle and from its surroundings. These systems require a larger quantity of decoupling capacitors, particularly as OEMs now equip their cars with 800-volt batteries to enable energy savings, mileage gains, and technological enhancements.
However, this shift in priorities within the automotive industry, placing AI at the heart of new-energy vehicles, comes with some caveats. As with any evolving technology, the faster it evolves, the more frequent cases of component obsolescence.
Following the 34% drop in 2023, the capacitor segment is experiencing a “structural tightening” as it struggles to keep pace with the flourishing AI industry. While automotive electrification remains a primary driver, it represents only one facet of AI’s far-reaching influence.
The demand for high-performance capacitors now spans every major sector: from industrial energy (real-time grid analysis) and agriculture (autonomous vehicle operation and crop management) to manufacturing (lean production) and healthcare (personalized care delivery).
The surge is fundamentally reshaping market dynamics. As AI pushes for extreme miniaturization and high power density, component prices are rising in tandem with the complexity of their production. Furthermore, sustainability initiatives place capacitors at the center of the green transition, as AI-optimized renewable networks and EV expansion rely entirely on these components to efficiently manage high-power exchanges. This intersection of massive demand and specialized requirements has placed the global supply chain under significant pressure.
High-end MLCCs are in high demand and cost-effective due to their high-capacitance and high-voltage capabilities. They meet engineers' need to minimize heat waste in compact boards by lowering ESR. However, this demand is growing exponentially as their purchase price doubles. Based on the trajectory of AI’s growth, industries expect the price of capacitors to follow suit over the next four years.
A shortage in aluminium foils, barium titanate (core dielectric material), polypropylene (and other plastic films), nickel, and copper plays a major role in driving up the price of the most commonly used capacitors for AI applications.
As supply chains experience this same squeeze, their approach to supplier and inventory management will be the deciding factor in their ability to keep up with technological evolution. This means reevaluating their supplier management methods, ensuring supply agreements with critical providers, diversifying their component options, and maximizing their use of inventories.
While supply chain and procurement managers may want to consider “just-in-case” as their inventory management strategy, it is also worth noting how rapidly things are changing. The immediate response to supply reduction might be to stockpile what they can, but AI demands agility, the ability to foresee obsolescence and factor this into long-term procurement decisions.
Engineers and procurement leaders may not be able to offset rising capacitor costs through sourcing alone, but there is an alternative approach that can mitigate unnecessary expenditure.
Teams can focus their attention on future-proofing their supply chains, improving their awareness of obsolescence, and refining how they manage their inventories. This is where Octopart proves itself to be more than just a component price comparison tool. Users can anticipate when capacitors are nearing discontinuation and quickly identify alternates.
While capacity is growing, the type of demand has changed. AI and 800V EVs require high-spec, high-voltage components that take longer to manufacture and have lower yields than standard consumer-grade capacitors.
The “AI boom” requires massive data processing power, which relies on high-density power delivery. AI servers and accelerators require significantly more capacitors per unit than traditional servers to manage heat and maintain stability. This surge in demand, combined with raw material shortages of nickel and tantalum powder, has created a “structural tightening” where production cannot keep pace with AI infrastructure builds.
The shift in capacitor supply and demand can be felt in the automotive sector. The average internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle uses between 3,000 and 5,000 capacitors, while EVs soak up in excess of 22,000 MLCCs. As a result, suppliers are dealing with a minimum five-fold growth in the number of these components required by the industry to enable AI-powered systems in cars.