Edgewater Research: Electronics Supply Chain Weekly Digest 09-08-23

Important Disclosures in the Appendix

A weekly collection of news summaries, survey results and channel insights, and report summaries from Edgewater Research

DATAPOINTS OF THE WEEK:

China Passenger Car Associated reported retail passenger vehicles in August totaled 1.93M units, up 8.6% M/M and up 2.5% Y/Y, marking a return to Y/Y growth after two months of declines as deeper discounts and tax breaks boosted demand. xEV sales increased 11.8% and 35% Y/Y with BEV/PHEV sales up 16.6% and 2.7% M/M and 23%/68% Y/Y respectively. xEV penetration increased to 37%, up 1 point M/M.  

S&P reported August global electronics PMI of 46.9 vs 47.5 in July signaling sustained and stronger deterioration in operating conditions. The downturn was noted as solid and strongest since June 2020 with the strongest contraction in new orders since Nov 2022 which also contributed to a stronger fall in output. New orders in the Consumer and Computing segments fell at the fastest pace for ten and six months respectively, while Industrial saw the strongest contraction since mid-2020. Post-production inventory held by global electronics firms contracted, albeit modestly, for the first time in four months. Global electronics firms posted a thirteenth consecutive monthly decline in purchasing activity in August with the rate of contraction increasing vs. July. The decrease in purchasing activity was broad-based across all sub-sectors and led by Industrials.

Headlines:

Auto

• European Auto OEMs have to urgently close the cost gap to Chinese EV makers say executives at Munich’s IAA mobility show
• EV battery cell prices in China have declined 10% in August and expected to drop further says TrendForce
• ChargePoint reported disappointing results; announces 10% workforce cut
• Ford confirms pushing out Explorer SUV production in Europe by 6 months
• Germany new car sales increased 37% Y/Y boosted by 171% growth in EVs
• Mercedes warns market in Europe not ready to be all electric by 2030
• Nissan to delay production of Kicks SUV in Mexico by 6 months
• Qualcomm will supply chips for infotainment systems to BMW and Mercedes
• Tesla has extended delivery time for Model Y Long Range in China by 2-4 weeks
• Tesla delays production from new factory in Mexico by 1-2 years on potential concerns of overcapacity
• VW trimming production in Germany due to engine parts shortages from Slovenia
• US new auto sales to fleets continue to boost retail sales with 34% Y/Y increase
• UAW makes contract counteroffer to Ford but warnes negotiations have been late to start
• GM offered 10% wage increase to union workers; UAW calls the offer “insulting”
• New Auto inventorty in the US increases 5% surpassing 2M for first time since Apri-21; Domestic brands inventory above industry average says Cox

Industrial

• Germany's wind power expansion stalls due to permits and logistics challenges

Distribution and EMS

• Farnell has expanded its stock of ADI products with 7,000 new products
• N.A. EMS shipments increased 3.4% Y/Y

Semiconductors

• Arm planning for a smaller than previously expected IPO at ~$50B valuation
• ASE sees inventory digestion timeline continuing to push out
• Study finds auto semi supply chain as not sustainable with half of OEMs considering current semi supply as secure and 70% of supply coming from Taiwan, Japan, Korea and China
• China planning to launch a new state-backed semiconductor investment fund worth $40B
• 2Q23 sales for top 10 foundries declined 1% Q/Q; 3Q outlook softer than seasonal except for AI
• Huawei and SMIC have made a breakthrough producing  7nm chips despite semi equipment restrictions
• Intel to provide Tower semi with access to 300mm wafer facility; Tower to invest $300M on equipment to produce power semis
• MPS has opened a new design center in Portugal
• Marvel announced an expansion in India
• NXP has alerted clients of recent data breach exposing private information
• Global semi sales have bottomed in 2Q23 but inventory depletion slower than expected
• ST Micro and Foxconn teaming up to build a semi fab in India
• Semi equipment sales declined 2% Y/Y in 2Q23 despite 15% increase in China
• TSMC currently able to address 80% = AI chip demand; planning to meet 100% within 18 months
• TSMC Aug revenue increased 6% M/M but company notes China demand recovery still slow and customers to burn inventory into 4Q
• UMC Aug revenue declined 1% M/M; utilization in 3Q to drop to 65%
• US lawmakers pushing to end all tech exports to Huawei and SMIC following 7nm breakthrough
• Vishay has opened new power inductor facility in Mexico

Consumer

• Apple iPhone 15 orders to suppliers seen as lower vs iPhone 14 notes DigiTimes
• China has ordered government, state, local agencies and companies to stop using Apple’s iPhones
• Huawei has placed orders for additional 15-17 million Mate 60 units with suppliers after phones sold out within hours of launch