Edgewater Research: Electronics Supply Chain Weekly Digest 10-06-23

Important Disclosures in the Appendix

A weekly collection of news summaries, survey results and channel insights, and report summaries from Edgewater Research

DATAPOINTS OF THE WEEK:

S&P Global reported Sep Eurozone mfg PMI of 43.4 vs 43.5 in Aug and Germany PMI of 39.6 vs 39.1 in Aug both reflecting a high pace of new order declines and sustained reduction in employment, purchasing activity, and inventories. In the US. The ISM reported Sep mfg PMI of 49 vs 47.6 in Aug reflecting an expansion in output but a continued decline in new orders and inventory, albeit at a slower pace vs Aug.  S&P Global similarly reported an improvement in Sep mfg PMI to 49.8 from 47.9 in August but a continued decline in orders. In Japan, mfg PMI remained in contraction territory for the fourth straight month falling to 48.5in Sept from 49.6 in August reflecting steeper declines in output and new orders. In China government official mfg PMI increased to 50.2 in Sept from 49.7 in Aug, signaling expanding activity for the first time in six months. The private-based Caixin PMI declined in Sept to 50.6 from 51.0 in Aug but similarly signaled a slight improvement in operating conditions though the year ahead confidence was noted as remaining subdued which was reflected in a drop in employment.

S&P reported Global Electronics operating conditions continued to deteriorate in Sept with a PMI of 47.7, albeit at a slower pace compared to Aug’s 47.0 reading. S&P notes output continued to decline at a similar pace in Sep, marking a 13^th consecutive month of declining output with all sub-sectors reporting declining production led by Computing. New orders also declined on the back of inventory destocking. Staffin levels also fell for the first time in 37 months, albeit only fractionally. S&P adds that in line with reduced new orders and production, global electronics manufacturers lowered their purchasing activity in September. The pace of contraction eased from August but remained marked overall.

Headlines:

Auto

• DigiTimes forecasts BYD sales outside of China on pace to increase 1.8x, led by triple-digit growth in Europe
• GM, Stellantis to potentially face $9.5 bln in US fines for not meeting proposed 2030 fuel economy standards
• Ford and GM announced further layoffs due to the UAW strike
• Ford facing a factory shutdown in Germany after talks of sales to a Chinese buyer failed
• New car registrations in Germany stumbled in Sep with EV registrations declining 35% due to expirations of government business incentives
• Lithium spot prices are spiraling down to the lowest in two years over concerns of Chinese EV demand
• Hyundai and Kia agreed to adopt Tesla’s N.A charging standard in 2025
• Tesla 3Q global deliveries fell short of expectations
• Tesla released an updated Model Y in China
• Tesla cut Model 3 and Y prices in the US again
• VW scraps plans for a $2B EV factory in Germany after cutting production output in recent weeks
• UAW spares Ford, GM, and Stellantis from additional walkouts on talks progressing
• UAW strike has already cost nearly $4B to the US economy says a Michigan consulting firm
• Used US car prices increased 1% M/M in September according to Cox
• New car inventory increased 7% M/M at US dealers in September says Cox
• UK car sales increased 21% driven by large fleet sales and PHEV, though private EV sales dropped 14%

Datacenter

• Dell kept long-term revenue growth outlook unchanged from a year ago despite tailwinds from AI, raising questions about non-AI servers, storage outlook
• Enterprise storage sales declined 14% in 2Q says Gartner, Huawei all-flash sales surging to number two globally

Industrials

• Rockwell completes acquisition of Clearpath Robotics
• Yaskawa maintained full-year outlook despite warning of slowing demand

IP&E

• Yageo to start volume production in 1Q at its new fab in Taiwan

Semiconductors

• OpenAI exploring plans to make its own AI chips, work with other suppliers besides Nvidia
• Chinese MCU firms eyeing Automotive and AI edge device applications
• DDI demand seen as remaining weak into 4Q23 says DigiTimes
• Intel to separate Altera business unit, setting up a potential IPO in 2-3 years
• Infineon acquires Swiss UWB and IoT designer 3db Access
• Taiwan probes four firms accused of helping China's Huawei
• Nvidia comes under European anti-competitive scrutiny
• RICS-V tech emerges as the new battleground between US and China politics
• 8-inch fab utilization to decline in 2H and remain subdued through early 2024 due to inventory overhang of mature edge PMIC and DDI says TrendForce
• TSMC’s new fab in Japan moving ahead of plan, potentially reaching mass production earlier in 2024
• TSMC September and 3Q sales come ahead of expectations
• August global semi sales increased M/M for sixth consecutive month
• IDC projects more diversified geographic mix of semi fab capacity driven by subsidy bills in Europe and the US
• U.S. has warned China to expect updated export curbs in October

Consumer and EMS

• Apple blames software bugs for iPhone 15 heating, promises software update
• Apple and partners planning to absorb higher manufacturing costs of iPhones in India
• Foxconn expects significant growth in sales in 4Q
• Jabil announced restructuring plan including layoffs